• Paul Compton

Big Spread Creep

I was still over 50% ATS on all sides last week, but I've noticed a creep of high spreads and now favoring more favorites each week to cover the spread, versus the higher % of dogs I saw consistently earlier in the season. I took a small measure to combat that this week, but still have some too high spreads, imo. It's one thing if the market instantly agrees with me and drives the lines up closer to mine, but that has not happened on several of my high lines, and so far the market has been right on those where they've gone a point or two in the other direction, like on Kansas State and Arkansas State last night. But that's not the case on all of these high lines. Some of the high lines have still ended up being right on, I nailed Bowling Green winning by 38, but looking at the total yards it's pretty clear that game could have been closer if Ohio had been able to finish drives. Total yards aren't super indicative, though, in many cases. BGSU did have a higher ypc and a much higher ypp average. Mississippi State also won by the predicted 18 points. Missouri ended up with the higher ypc average, while MSST had the much higher ypp average. So two of the high spreads were right on, while the other 3 ended up being way off, with two of them losing outright. App St. actually dominated the first half but gave up two defensive scores to ARST. And then I think App St. just totally ran out of gas in the second half. Some combination of back to back emotional wins and a short week that affected them more than ARST led to a defensive collapse and a usually dominant run game that just couldn't get it done. They had every statistical advantage in the world in that game against ARST. You can't even use the SOS argument App in that game, as their strength of schedule is pretty similar to ARST. And Toledo -- apparently their lot in life is to choke against NIU. So this week, 2 of 5 big spreads were right on, and 2 of the 3 losers were covering at some point in their games. In the one that wasn't covering at any point, App St., they statistically dominated the first half and would have been covering at the half if not for two defensive scores allowed...probably. But like I said, it's when the market doesn't agree with me that I worry, so being a constant tinkerer I'm going to see what I can do about the high spread creep I've noticed lately. As for my totals, they've been highly accurate even if totally absent of any luck for winning. Recommended plays were 19-2 on being on the right side of line moves. This week they've gotten off to a good start, and I felt much more confident in my total plays than side plays entering this week, as I feel like I really jumped some good numbers.