Ball St. @ Ohio 11/17/15
The Ohio running game has really gotten back on track putting up impressive stats the last couple of games against rush defenses better than Ball St. has. Ball St. has let every team not named Georgia State run for a higher ypc average than they normally average this season. On top of that, Ball State's pass defense is even worse, for those less frequent times when Ohio QB Vick actually decides to throw the ball instead of run with it. Ball State started off the season with a few good running games, but then Toledo shut that down in Ball's fourth game and Ball has averaged 1.3 yards less per carry than their opponents usually allow since. They've been particularly bad in their last two games, and now they're on the road near the end of a season with nothing to gain from wins at this point. Outside of one good game passing the ball against MASS at home a couple of weeks ago Ball has been really awful passing the ball as well -- they are really a team fading on all fronts as the season draws to a close. Ball St. is coming off of a bye, but considering how their season has gone if anything this will only add to their disinterest. However, I rarely presume to know the psychology of a team entering a game -- instead I presume that every team comes to play every game. And THAT being said, lol, if the numbers indicate a team is fading toward the finish line, well, the numbers and my line do take that into account, and in-season trends do affect my line. Yes, the Ball St. Under 7 season wins play I recommended is already a winner, lol. I recommended a 1% play on Ohio (-115) when the lines came out.