• Paul Compton

Toledo @ Bowling Green 11/17/15

There's little doubt that Bowling Green, in this game, will get theirs...through the air. BGSU is back to having my #1 rated pass offense, while Toledo's pass defense comes in at 59th. BGSU has lit up better pass defenses than Toledo's. Whoever wins and/or covers this game hinges upon the other match ups. Toledo has run for well over a yard+ more per carry in the games which RB Kareem Hunt has played. He missed a few games early in the season. With 3 RBs that average 5+ ypc the Toledo running game stays fresh from start to finish. It will be a test for a slightly below average BGSU rush defense that has, though, been playing a bit better as of late. BGSU's pass defense has been playing better as well, but some of that is down to stats compiled versus the ineffectual passing games of the worst MAC teams they've faced. Toledo has been committed to running a balanced offense this year; sometimes frustratingly so in situations where you've just wanted them to run the damn rock, lol. That balance should pay off in keeping this game close. If you've watched any of Toledo's games you've seen QB Ely throw to his receivers in man coverage many of the times the defense puts an extra defender in the box. The opening # for the game briefly hit +9.5, a number worth playing, but then dropped all the way down to +7 while I was for an afternoon walk, lol. In a game that should be this high scoring the point spread value isn't as high despite the 5+ point difference in my line and market line. Being a bit of a degenerate I'm sure I'll still put an unposted play in on Toledo, though, lol. I did recommend a 1% play on the Over 69 when it opened. Totals have been extremely random this year -- in spite of crushing the closing lines and setting up some big middles every week I'm somehow still in the red on my totals plays. It's a bit mind boggling and is some wicked bad variance, imo. Either that or myself and all the computer modelers out there that end up dictating where the closing totals should be are collectively wrong in our line making. Food for thought, lol. Anyway, I did recommend quite a few totals this week, but with the intention of trying to middle the crap out of just about every one where we picked up at least a couple of points of line value. If you've tracked my sheet and plays this year you know I'm supremely confident in knowing which way the total lines are going to go...and then, like I said, the actual final scores all over the damn place! So yeah, I'm kind of just saying screw it I'll play for a bunch of middles, even with potentially small windows. Only the 2% and 3% plays am I going to hang onto 1% of the original play as a value bet. So, as far as the Over play for tonight goes, if the # gets to 72 I'm going to middle out of the whole thing, and if it doesn't I'll let it ride. I'm comfortable with the play as is, I think it should go Over.