• Paul Compton

Air Force @ Boise State 11/20/15

I recommended a 2% play on Air Force +16 when the lines opened to set up a partial buy back. The line is +11 right now, so just waiting to see if +10 becomes available. Boise hasn't been a very focused team since the loss to Utah State. They're actually a really bad run team, I rank them 110th. Their rush defense, which started off the season really strong, has been pretty average over the past month. The passing game, which the Broncos had been relying on for wins early in the year, has been pretty poor starting with the Utah State game, having its only really good against the fading UNLV defense. It just seems like Boise lost its killer instinct in that walloping that Utah State laid on them. They haven't been the same since. And now, with a third loss, I'm not sure how much they'll be up for this game, even though they're still alive for the conference championship, I believe. Air Force, for their part, have been playing extremely well since suffering a loss at CSU a month ago. Their offense is playing lights out, and their run defense has been killer. Boise's best chance for success will be through the air in this game. Based on this year's stats alone Air Force would win this game, so you might want to sprinkle a little ML on there, as they say.