Write Ups for Every Saturday College Football Game Week #12!
Quick paragraphs for every college football game on Saturday!
Buffalo @ Akron
Akron's passing game showing signs of life, while Buffalo's pass defense has been below average after a strong start to the season. Buffalo's passing game with Joe Licata finally getting on track, too. Not as enthused of the Under, as a result. We got burned on the Unders by both these teams last week. Will stick to line value on this total, but it opens in the high 40s will still make a play to set up a middle.
Mississippi State @ Arkansas
Arkansas' offense is really good right now -- balanced and hard to stop. Their run defense is really good, too, they super shut down LSU last week on the ground. As a result, look for MSST to pass a lot, as ARK is vulnerable against the pass, and MSST is already a pass first team.
Arizona @ Arizona State
Arizona's passing game has really solidified, while ASU's pass defense has been pretty shaky. Arizona has been playing better than ASU last couple games. ASU only beat WASH because of turnovers. Unfortunately for Arizona, concussion prone QB Solomon suffered another one last week and there's a good chance he'll be sitting this game out. It's doubly bad because now all of a sudden the match ups favor ASU as the ARIZ backup QB is a better runner than passer.
Rutgers @ Army
Both Army and Tulane ended up with less than 400 yards of offense last week, but it still flew Over the total. In hindsight, Army's shoddy pass defense versus a back to healthy Tanner Lee for Tulane was a bad spot for Army, and I'd forgotten about the good numbers put up against Navy just a couple of weeks prior. That should have been enough of a red flag to steer clear of Army and maybe the total in this one.
Idaho @ Auburn
Idaho is terrible, and I don’t see how they can maintain a high effort in this game once they fall behind big. Auburn's passing game with an injured Sean White (or healthy Jeremy Johnson) was horrible against Georgia last week, but their running game was very good against a normally good Georgia run defense. If Auburn decides to just run the ball in this game they can blow Idaho off the line and score on just about every possession. If they decide this game is a good opportunity to work on their passing game...well, they should still have success, but it opens the door to shoot themselves in the foot.
Notre Dame vs Boston College (neutral field)
BC started off the season only able to run the ball a little bit on offense. Now they can't run it a lick but can pass it just a little bit. Yeah, their offense is dreadful. The BC defense started off the season really strong against the run and have regressed to merely good against the run. They started off very good against the pass, too, but have been really bad defending the pass the last month. A fading defense is not what you're looking for against Notre Dame. Still, the very high level of play of Notre Dame early in the season is also starting to tail off a little bit, which is understandable given how well they'd been playing and perhaps also because the injuries they suffered early in the season are now starting to affect their depth some. Notre Dame's pass defense has been pretty average lately, maybe BC can make a few surprise plays/scores to get the cover. Maybe.
Fresno State @ BYU
BYU let Missouri have their first good game passing the ball last week, while FRES QB Greenlee threw for 6 TDs against Hawaii while averaging 8.1 ypp, the first time FRES has even cracked 7 ypp this season. I don't see BYU getting up for this game, and FRES maybe playing with a bit more spirit after last week's win.
Wake Forest @ Clemson
Clemson won on cruise control at Syracuse last week. Of some concern is their rush defense, which went from being a #1 unit after 6 weeks to barely top ten now, and only hanging onto that because of their early season success. Luckily for the Tigers Wake Forest still can't run a lick. Wake's passing game has been improving, but that's a bad matchup as Clemson does indeed still have my #1 pass defense. Wake did a great job against Notre Dame's passing attack last week. Clemson has become more prone to runnning a lot in blow out wins, which this one rates to be. It all adds up to an Under lean.
Houston @ Connecticut
Houston QB Ward injured, but backup Potma lead them to a huge come from behind win against Memphis. CONN's rush defense has been mostly pretty bad, which means HOU should control this game on the ground. Houston's run offense has been slipping toward mediocrity, though. CONN"s rush offense has been improving. Houston's rush defense has also been sliding toward mediocrity. Houston's pass game is also pretty mediocre, as is their pass defense. You know what? Houston is a pretty mediocre team overall, lol, and were pretty lucky to beat Memphis last week. It might not be this week against UCONN, but I expect my numbers to project a Navy win in the final week to spoil Houston's unbeaten season.
Western Kentucky @ Florida International
Not only is WKU one of the best passing teams, they are improving dramatically running and defending the run as the regular season begins to wind down. FIU is not good, especially on the road, and I'm still kicking myself for not taking Marshall -10 when the line dropped back down to the opener later in the week. FIU will be at home here, and they'll be Bowl eligible if they beat WKU...but yeah, not gonna' happen. This is FIU's final game, which means they've gone the entire season without a bye week, and after running out of gas last week against Marshall I don't expect them to fair much better this week. First half Over should be a solid play.
Florida Atlantic @ Florida
FLA's rush defense has been extremely good and should have little trouble with FAU's weak run attack. FLA has been up and down defending the pass, so the cover will probably come down to FAU's ability to pass the ball. I expect FLA to make it a boring game running a lot with the lead, but they don't have a big enough advantage in the running game to add many late scores that way, which favors the Under here. Still, FAU's defense is bad enough, and they're on the road, that they might get boat raced with Florida getting near whatever the Over ends up being by themselves. That downgrades it from an Under+ to just an Under lean.
Southern Alabama @ Georgia State
Both Southern Alabama and Georgia State are having successful seasons based purely on the fact that preseason expectations were pretty low for both teams. Still, these are both bottom 30 teams and throwing garbage at garbage is literally a crap shoot. Best to stick to whatever line value is. I do like GAST, with their superior passing game, to win at home, though.
San Jose State @ Hawaii
The post-Chow party at Hawaii got off to a bad start with Hawaii getting smoked like an island pig again. It's been a while since Hawaii has lost this badly at home in consecutive games. They didn't play as badly as the final score indicated, as turnovers killed them...but still, Fresno is not a good team and letting them crush you like that at home is not good. San Jose State can become Bowl eligible with wins at Hawaii and versus Boise to finish the regular season. It's certainly possible with as bad as Boise has been lately. I expect a good effort from both teams, yes, even Hawaii.
Purdue @ Iowa
Purdue had its second best passing game of the season last week at Northwestern (unfortunately), against a good NW defense. That's a positive they can take into this game as the only thing Iowa is mediocre at is pass defense. Iowa had actually been fairly solid against the pass until Minnesota lit them up big time last week. Hopefully Iowa gets some things fixed in practice, as I project Iowa to crush Purdue in this game. Will that one potential matchup advantage keep Purdue close? Actually, Iowa's run defense has been pretty average over the past month, too, so it's possible Purdue could have some success there, too. Yikes, I'm starting to scare myself in spite of the fact that I've already picked up 4 points of line value on the Iowa play already, lol. Oh wait, now I remember why I'm not too worried, Purdue's defense is terrible and Iowa's offense is playing really good right now.
Iowa State @ Kansas State
In spite of dropping 6 games in a row, Kansas State is still alive for Bowl eligibility with three games remaining. If they win out, they are in -- and they have a legitimate chance to do it. Iowa State lost their Bowl eligibility after the tough loss to OK State last week. This seems like a let down spot for ISU. If KSU gets the win and then another next week at Kansas, they just have to beat West Virginia at home in the final game. West Virginia has actually been pretty mediocre lately. Kansas State is really struggling defending the pass lately, so ISU's best chance for success lies there. KSU, with home field and the motivational edge should win in the trenches, controlling the clock, as they like to do.
West Virginia @ Kansas
Give Kansas some credit for not quitting on a season that has gone so, so poorly for them. West Virginia still needs a win for Bowl eligibility, but I'm not sure how up they'll be for this game. If not for turnovers they could have lost last week against Texas. Seriously. I know the numbers have WVU covering the spread right now, but I wouldn't touch the Mountaineers at all in this one. West Virginia has faced the toughest schedule of run offenses in FBS, and still done pretty well against that stiff competition. They could easily be the team to put the kabosh on Kansas' improving run offense. Still, the more I look at the in-season trends, the more I see WVU fading on almost all fronts with their brutal schedule, while Kansas has been still trying, in spite of some obvious blow out losses. I've almost talked myself into backing Kansas here, lol.
Miami Ohio @ Massachusetts
What on earth has happened to the Massachusetts passing game that was supposed to be so good this year? While they had some good games in the first half of the season, they've been absolutely horrible in every one of their last 5 games. I actually rank their running game one spot ahead of their passing game now at 92nd. All four of their offense and defense rankings are in the 90s. Consistently poor at just about everything. Miami of Ohio's passing game has been much better than MASS' lately, and better overall for the year. In fact, the only unit of MASS that ranks higher than one of M-OHs is rush offense, as M-OH is bottom five there. Still, outside of a terrible run game against WMU a month ago, M-OH's run offense has improved in the second half. Well improved to merely below average, that is.
Indiana @ Maryland
Indiana's running game has been hella' good the last couple of games, partly from getting healthy. They chewed up yards against Michigan and Iowa like nobody else has been able to do this year. So bet the farm against a two win Maryland, team, right? Not so fast, friend. There's a reason Maryland has covered its last 5 games against the likes of Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan State (Um yeah, you can see why wins have been hard to come by for Maryland). They are surprisingly good running the ball...and defending the run. Maryland has faced the toughest schedule of run defenses of anyone in FBS. Until last week's game @ MSU, Maryland had run for a higher ypc average than any of their four previous conference foes usually allows. 253 yards against Ohio State, 241 against Penn State, 167 against Iowa, before tailing off with 112 against Wisconsin and 107 against Michigan State. Indiana has some defensive toughness against the run in the middle...but they still rank 86th versus the run. For the season I rank Maryland's run offense ahead of Indiana's, but judging by Indiana's past two games I wouldn't put one ahead of the other. Maryland's rush defense is much better than 86th, coming in at 26th. On their five game covering streak not a single team has rushed for more than their usual ypc average, and as a matter of fact Maryland has held those teams to 1.7 yards less per carry than they usually gain. That's huge. Yes, Indiana has a much better passing game, but Maryland's pass defense also ranks 26th, to Indiana's 75th. I'm not betting Maryland in this game, but I think it's a mistake to bet Indiana.
Georgia Tech @ Miami
As bad as Miami's rush defense has been, it's hard to have confidence in Georgia Tech's run offense, which has been highly inconsistent this year, and has struggled on the road in particular. Still, it's a bad match up all the way around for Miami in this game. You want to attack GT on the ground, which Miami has been terrible at doing this year. GT is pretty good against the pass. It's GT or nothing in this game, really. (And will probably be nothing after suffering through watching GT blow the cover against VT last week fumbling on three consecutive possessions.)
Illinois @ Minnesota
Minnesota's offense is really starting to come around after suffering a bunch of injuries early in the season. They've shown the ability to put yards and points against some of the best defenses out there. That will come in handy against the pretty good Illini' defense. Illinois' offense has been up and down this year, the down parts due to injuries and overall from facing a brutal schedule of B1G defenses. They've faced the toughest schedule of pass defenses of any school in the FBS. Outside of Purdue, who Illinois crushed, Minny's defense will actually be the softest one that Illinois has faced in a while...and the Minny defense is better than average. You can see that either team is capable of some offensive success in this game, especially Minnesota, I'd say, but there are no big enough advantages to warrant a play in this one.
LSU @ Mississippi
Les Miles' seat is rumored to be heating up after back to back ugly losses against good Alabama and Arkansas teams. Will it be a 3 game skid for the Tigers facing Ole Miss? The numbers say yes. LSU's suddenly struggling rush offense now goes up against an Ole Miss rush defense that is playing really well right now. That means LSU will continue to try and have some success through the air, which they've been improving at. It will be an even match up for LSU there with their 31st ranked pass offense versus the 31st ranked Ole Miss pass defense. "Struggling" at running for LSU means they should still get 4+ ypc in this game, btw. Both teams should have just above average games running and passing the ball. Couple that with Miss' speedy pace of play (somewhat counter-acted by LSU's slower pace of play) and I project this game scoring around 60 points. The total opened at 59.5 but was hit unbelievably hard down to 55. At 55 I'm more than eager to jump on the Over, anticipating the number to rise back up to near the opener.
Tennessee @ Missouri
Missouri finally got a win against BYU last week, while Tennessee seemed cruised to a shut out win over North Texas but still failed to cover as a 41 point favorite. That kind of an effort won't get you a cover at Missouri, even with as bad as the Tigers have been. The backups offensive talent outperformed the starters in that game, as well, with QB Dobbs having a terrible game, given the competition, while backup RB Kamara, who gets about 1/3 of the carries that Hurd does, outgained Hurd in ypc pretty heavily. So yeah, not sure what to expect from the Tennessee starters in this game. Maybe they were saving it for a conference foe. Mizzouri had their first good game passing the ball this season, though you have to figure they'll be hard pressed to repeat that success against a very good TENN pass defense. The Mizz run game has been decent their last few games as well, but TENN also has a better rush defense than anyone MIZZ has recently faced. I lean the home dog and Under here, but enough to make a play on either.
North Texas @ Middle Tennessee
MTU, for being a G5 team, has had a pretty tough schedule this year, especially with the defenses they've faced in out of conference games against Alabama, Illinois and Vanderbilt. Since entering conference play their passing game with QB Stockstill (a freshman!) has been on the rise. UNT's pass defense has been improving as well, but should be no match for MTU's aerial attack in this game. MTU will also run the ball plenty, as they like to do in close or leading games, which will serve them well versus a bad UNT run defense. UNT offensively is actually a better than average running team but their passing game is dreadful, 2nd worst in the FBS. That's a bad match up for them against MTU, as MTU's defensive vulnerability, especially as of late, has been against the pass. They are are decent against the run. I'm passing on the high spread, but the numbers still favor MTU to cover with a small lean on the Under. MTU is poised and due to have a big day on offense here, UNT is not.
Syracuse @ North Carolina State
Syracuse QB Dungey is "?" with a head, so it will be apples or oranges for their offense depending on if he or QB Mahoney plays. Dungey is the far superior pass, while Mahoney is the more dangerous runner. Either way, Syracuse' defense hasn't been good enough to help the 'Cuse get any wins in quite some time. As for NCST, their offense was startign to get it together until the FSU defense bottled them up pretty good last week. I'm not sure when before or during that game NCST RB Dayes injured his toe, but he's out for the season now as a result of it, and he was their primary RB. RB Thornton was already kicked off the team awhile ago, so it's down to Jaylen Samuels to be the primary ball carrier. He's put up numbers just as good, so it's more a depth issue now for the unit. It's been a long time since NCST has faced a pass defense as bad as SYR's, so I expect them to have a decent+ day through the air. Syracuse, in contrast to last year, has been an Over type team this year, thanks to their crap defense and an offense that has been able to put points on the board even against good defenses. With a spread of 17 I lean on SYR to cover, but I'm not playing them. My total projects at 55.5, which honestly seems a little low to me. The total is still off the board, and if it opens at anything lower than my number I'll probably take the Over for a little bit.
TCU @ Oklahoma
I like the Sooners, whether Boykin plays for TCU or not. I rank the Sooners as playing the best football in the entire FBS right now. Yup.
Baylor @ Oklahoma State
With a healthy QB Stidham for Baylor I'd take Baylor as a pick, no problem. But given his back injury, which he'll be playing through (and he didn't look very good on some throws against Oklahoma last week) I'm going to pass. If he were healthy I'd also probably take the Over.
USC @ Oregon
The Duck offense has finally arrived, and USC's defense, with two freshly injured LB's, while good, shouldn't be good enough to slow Oregon down in this game. So the question is whether USC can keep up. Given their falling offensive numbers in the wake of offensive injuries as well (down to their 3rd string center), I don't think so. USC should still have pretty good success offensively, but fall short by 7 or 8 points in a game that should score into the 70s.
Washington @ Oregon State
It's Wednesday and I can't for the life of me figure out why this line hasn't shot above 17 yet. It opened at -16 for Washington and has sat on -15 for a couple of days. WTF? Are people that scared of Oregon State Senior Day? LMAO! ORST has lost all of their conference games, and by an average of 25 points. This. Game. Should. Not. Be. Any. Different. Washington would have beaten Arizona State last week if not for four turnovers. They will be mad. They should run all over ORST. They match up well versus ORST, as the Huskies are extremely tough to run on. They are also very good defending the pass, though they've had a couple of bad games there, but that was against Oregon and Stanford. ORST is not going to exploit the only potential defensive weakness WASH has. ORST was able to run on CAL last week and score some points. Perhaps that and Washington's misleading box score loss are why this line hasn't moved yet. I don't know, I'm baffled, and I'd recommend putting a max play in on WASH right now and expect to be able to middle out of some of it come game day. This line hasn't moved yet, but I'll be highly surprised if it doesn't by game day.
Michigan State @ Ohio State
I'm showing just a little bit of value on Ohio State, and factor in an injured Connor Cook for MSU and I'm liking OSU -13 for a little piece. By my statistics MSU is trending down in all four main categories, and especially on defense. That's not a position you want to be in on the road against Ohio State. MSU has no match up advantages in this game, so it's basically an accumlation of small edges that makes myself and the numbers think OSU can win this game by 14+.
Louisville @ Pittsburgh
Louisville is improving offensively at the same time that PITT is declining defensively. PITT's pass defense in particular has been rather suspect as of late. Couple that with a couple of really good games recently passing the ball for LOU and I like the Cardinals to get the road upset win here. It won't be easy, as PITT's run game has been really good in their last couple, but LOU is tough to run on.
Michigan @ Penn State
It's shocking that MICH's rush defense in their last three games has been below average versus their opponent's usual ypc averages considering how dominant that unit had been until then. That's good news for PSU as they'll need some success on the ground to keep their passing game out of too many obvious passing downs. The PSU passing game with QB Hackenburg has finally lived up to its off-field hype over the past month, compiling some nice numbers against some good defenses. Outside of the game at Minnesota, Michigan's pass defense has still been pretty good. PSU's defense has been following a somewhat similar path -- early season success with some lapses over the past month, especially against the run. That matches up well against MICH, who have been relying exlusively on their passing game for success lately. I recommend taking the points with the home dog in this one. I wouldn't play the total, but the Over might be a good play considering the faltering defenses and seriously improving passing games for both teams.
Tulane @ SMU
SMU's fading passing game squares off versus an improving Tulane pass defense, but SMU should still have the advantage passing the ball in this game. It's hard to say for sure, though, as a healthy Tanner Lee for Tulane is capable of scoring against pass defenses as weak as SMU's. Both teams have the advantage defensively against the other team's run attack, but not by a large margin. These garbage games can be unpredictable -- I recommended some Under on the initial line just to set up some middle action.
California Berkeley @ Stanford
CAL finally got to face a below average pass defense last week against Oregon State (yes, the Oregon Ducks' pass defense has improved enough to be average), and QB Goff finally got off. That success through the air should continue versus an average and struggling Stanford defense. So it rests upon CAL's defense to make enough stops for the Bears to challenge for the win. Unfortunately there's little reason to think CAL's defense will be able to do so versus a balanced Stanford offense. Cal should score enough to cover as a double digit dog, and I do like the Over 64.5.
Memphis @ Temple
You have to worry about the psychology of the Memphis team a little bit heading into this game. They've lost back to back games and are on the road for a second straight week. They had the game against Houston all but wrapped up last week and then lost in pretty heart breaking fashion. That's tough to bounce back from. Temple also lost last week, but they were pretty much trounced from the get go by one of the biggest FBS surprises of the year, Southern Florida.
Navy @ Tulsa
Navy is steam rolling everything in their path right now -- can Tulsa raise a wave big enough to slow them down? Short answer -- no. Tulsa's run defense has been better in the second half of the season against some weak running conference foes. Tulsa has had overall bad run defense against a pretty weak schedule of rush offenses, outside of UNM, OKLA, HOU and CIN, all who ran the ball pretty successfully against Tulsa. So Navy should get theirs -- can Tulsa keep up? It doesn't looks like it. Navy is really good against the pass, which is Tulsa's clear strength on offense. Navy is also above average against the run, while Tulsa has really struggled with that offensively in spite of the play calling tendency to run the ball more than the average team. If this game plays out anywhere near team averages Navy should cruise to a comfortable near 20 point win.
Georgia Southern @ Georgia
This game is going to come down to defense with both teams excellent at running the ball while struggling with the passing game. Can GASO compete in the trenches with the huge recruiting gap between their team and Georgia's? GASO has played solid, consistent run defense this season, but not against anyone quite as good as Georgia. At the very least that match up works for GASO, as they're pretty bad defending the pass, and Georgia hasn't done anything in the passing game since week #6 at Tennessee. Defensively, Georgia has had a couple of bad games defending the run recently, against Auburn and Florida. That bodes well for GASO. The numbers like GASO to make this a competitive game, but sometimes the talent gap ends up manifesting itself more in games like this. Still, I recommended a play on GASO at +16 when the line opened, and has picked up some value with the line hovering around +13.5 right now.
Charlotte @ Kentucky
Charlotte has been randomly up and down defensively this season, while being consistently bad offensively, outside of a little life in the passing game over this past month. Kentucky has been running the ball pretty well, but that's about it. Their QB play has been so bad they're switching starters for this game. Kentucky has been mostly bad against the pass this year, which opens the door for Charlotte to generate just enough offense to possibly cover the big number here.
Colorado State @ New Mexico
Both teams have been finding their offensive groove, lately. For Colorado State it has been with great balance, while for New Mexico it has been an improvement in the passing game that has helped shore up their usually one dimensional running offense. It has been New Mexico's defensive improvement that has given the two best back to back upset wins of any team in the FBS against Utah State and then Boise State. As such, both teams should have pretty good offensive success in this game, and either team could win this game. If anything, I'd take a shot on New Mexico getting a little bit of plus money on the ML, as I like them to win a close one.
Old Dominion @ Southern Miss
Southern Miss has really been dominating inferior opponents lately, while ODU has been creeping toward respectability. A big blow for ODU, though, coming into this game, as RB Lawry was injured last game and will have to miss this contest. ODU QB Washington has been getting a little bit better, but is now in a tough spot versus a better defense than they've recently faced, on the road, without their clear #1 RB. The Lawry injury alone makes my numbers lean on USM covering the 21 points now.
Nevada @ Utah State
Nevada is enjoying a 3 game winning streak against the weaker teams in the MWC, but haven't exactly dominated in doing so. Utah State is coming off of two losses, and like conference foe Boise they haven't exactly been shining as supposedly one of the best teams in the conference. Still, USU is a much better team and I look for them to get back on track offensively in this game, especially passing the ball versus a bad Nevada defense. NEV QB Stewart has been playing better lately, but USU has no real defensive weaknesses (though they have given up big passing plays to run first teams like Air Force and New Mexico in their losses). Nevada's run should come to an end this Saturday, but I don't see any point spread value either way in this game. A little lean on the Over, though.
UCLA @ Utah
RB Booker has 40% of Utah's offensive yards this season, and now he's out until at least the Bowl game. UCLA is already the better team. You see where this is headed…
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP
Can UTEP play keep away enough to cover versus a vastly more dangerous LT team? Probably not -- LT has covered this number versus its last three conference opponents, none of whom are any worse than UTEP, really, and one Middle Tennessee, who is far better.
Rice @ UT San Antonio
Cheer up, Rice, your nightmare season is nearing an end. All you have to do is lose at San Antonio this week, probably beat Charlotte in your final game and not even have a Bowl game to worry about. Well, techinically, if Rice can win out they will be Bowl eligible, but Jesus, what Bowl game would want this dreadful Rice team? They are bottom 30 at everything. San Antonio is obviously no great shakes, but they are at least not bottom 30 at one thing -- run defense. That plus home field is good enough for about a 10 point win, by my numbers. I recommended a 2% investment on UTSA at pick when the lines opened, to set up some middle action, and the line is currently -3.
Duke @ Virginia
Good news for Duke, QB Sirk will play in this game. They need his "skill" in the passing game to at least give the Blue Devils a threat through the air to keep UVA honest on run defense. Virginia is really a pretty average team across the board, and I don't think they should be favored in this game. Duke has a better run offense and defense, and that should enough to get the closely contested road win.
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt
The TA&M offense has been struggling playing the better SEC defenses they've faced, and now they're on the road versus another good one at Vanderbilt. This is a decent match up for Vanderbilt, as they can run the ball some and that is where TA&M is vulnerable, defensively. Against their SEC foes, TA&M has only held one team under 5 ypc in six games this season. Consequently I think VAN can keep it within a score here, with a game played into the low to mid 40s.
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech
It's the Coach Beamer retirement game, which the market so far thinks will mean a serious infusion of magical ability into all of the VT players for this game. Yeah, we'll see -- I like North Carolina, as usual.
Northwestern @ Wisconsin
These teams should run pretty close in the running match ups, but Wisconsin has a big enough advantage in the passing game coupled with home field advantage to cover as a 10 point favorite. It's going to be cold and a bit windy, so I'm leaning the Under even on the low total.
Colorado @ Washington State
Colorado will be starting their 2nd string QB after the season injury to regular starter Liufau. Apsay came in for Liufau came in and did complete 18 of 23 against a good USC defense, though it was all pretty conservative with a low ypp. WSU off of a huge upset win at UCLA last week, and this is their final home game. This Colorado team has been pretty scrappy though, and WSU doesn't have the running game to ice a 4th quarter lead, so I like Colorado to stay within the number, as long as there is even luck with turnovers, etc.