Boca Raton Bowl: Temple vs Toledo
Toledo's defense has been pretty solid this year, but when they've failed, they've failed spectacularly. In weeks 7 and 8 they let EMU & MASS have big days on the ground. In pass defense they only allowed 3 teams to throw for higher than their usual ypp average, but 2 of those 3 went for WAY more ypp than usual, as NIU threw for 3.8 more ypp than usual, and WMU 4.0 more ypp than usual. Those were both big games playing for divisional leads, as well. As such, Toledo comes into the Bowl game with a bit of a choker's reputation, honestly, in spite of playing pretty well in the other statistical categories in those two losses. Their run defense was solid down the stretch, and their pass offense was really good in the second half of the season with the exception of one terrible game against NIU. Toledo is a team I probably ranked higher than Temple for most of the season. I have Toledo playing a slightly tougher schedule, though it's very close. The only thing that Temple was consistently good at this year was pass defense. They had only one really bad game of pass defense, against South Florida, but finished the season holding both Memphis and Houston to far below their usual ypp averages. Temple's run defense was less consistent and ultimately pretty average, which makes them susceptible to Toledo's strong ground game. Offensively there's never a guarantee in any game that Temple is going to play particularly well, so I'd be a little pessimistic of their chances for consistent success against a better than average Toledo defense. Both teams are probably a bit disappointed at how their seasons ended considering the good starts they got off too. I have no idea if either team will have a motivational edge in this game. As such I trust the numbers here that tell me that this should be a below-average scoring game, with Toledo's advantage with the run game being the key to their victory. Toledo's HC has accepted the HC job at Iowa State. Historically interim coaches don't affect the outcome of the Bowls for worse. Trust me, I read the study.
Recommended plays for subscribers when lines opened: Under 53 (-115) - 0.7%. I will play TOL either at +3 if the line gets there, or ML, if it doesn't, for 1%.