• Paul Compton

Belk Bowl: Mississippi St. vs. North Carolina St.

The only thing holding MSST QB Prescott back from being a serious Heisman contender was MSST's 8-4 record. He was clearly the best QB in the best conference with the strongest defenses. Dak played a much tougher schedule that OKLA's Mayfield, and a tougher schedule that CLEM's Watson, a team whose passing game ranks right next to MSST's for me. That being said, you can make arguments for a crap ton of players deserving the Heisman, lol. MSST isn't just a good passing team, either. After a couple of early tough games versus some decent run defenses (LSU & AUB) they've run the ball pretty consistently with 3 "best" games and "zero" worst games against the toughest schedule of run defenses that any team has faced, by my rankings. NCST's run defense is average and vulnerable, quite frankly. UNC obliterated NCST on the strength of gaining 9.1 ypc and 378 rush yards. Look out, Wolfpack. With the Bulldogs project to have a pretty good game offensively, can NCST keep pace? The one thing NCST has going for it is that their strongest unit, their run offense, goes up against MSST's weakest unit, their run defense. MSST's run defense wasn't good down the stretch, either, with 3 "worst" games in their final 4, with the odd exception of having a fantastic "best" game against ARK in the middle of those 4. So while success on the ground seems imminent for NCST, success through the air does not. Their passing game was inconsistent with 2 "best" and 4 "worst" games, and really hasn't had an outstanding game since week 4 against Southern Alabama. Meanwhile, MSST's pass defense has been consistent all year with 5 "best" and 0 "worst" games. ARK with QB Allen did torch them through the air a couple of games ago, but ARK has done that to just about everybody, and it didn't end up being for that much more in ypp terms than usual. NCST's passing game is nowhere near as good as ARK's.

Recommended plays for the game were:

Over 59 for 0.7%

MSST -5.5 for 0.5%