Alamo Bowl: Oregon vs TCU
*** Written before Boykin's suspension.***
Since the return of ORE QB Adams in week #7 the Duck have averaged 5.8 ypc and 12.0 ypp in their final 6 games. The PAC12 isn't known for stellar defense (with the exception of WASH, one of the teams played in that stretch), though, and TCU will actually be one of the better defenses ORE has faced since the WASH game. Still, TCU's defensive numbers are skewed because for half of the game against OKLA OKLA's offense did very little when starting QB Mayfield was knocked out of the game, and then they played Baylor in a monsoon where BAY was already without the services of their two actual QBs. So ORE, as balanced offense, is quite capable of doing to TCU what OKLA did in the first half of that game before Mayfield was knocked out. At the same time, though, TCU QB Boykin was injured and missed almost two full games and returned only for the monsoon Baylor game, where the conditions hurt his numbers. TCU's #1 receiver, Docston, was hurt in the same game as Boyking, further hurting TCU's passing game in their final 3 games. I've heard a rumor that he might actually be back for the Bowl game, but am not sure as of now. Either way, I expect the TCU game to rebound against an Oregon secondary that is actually the strength of the Oregon defense, I kid you not. ORE had a 3-2 ratio of "best" and "worst" pass defense qualifying games, and a much worse ratio of 2-6 on run defense, and they faced a much tougher schedule of pass offenses than run offenses to boot. Right now I project a 3 point Oregon victory, but considering that TCU's pass offense downward trend will probably rebound means this game should be closer to a 1 or 2 point Oregon victory. I recommended the Over 73.5 when it opened, but the value on the total is gone now at 78. This should be a fun, fun game to watch, with both teams ripping off big runs and passing plays.
Recommended investments: Over 73.5 (juiced out after Boykin's suspension) 1%, ORE +2 0.8%, TENN -2 and ORE -1 teaser (post Boykin suspension play) 1%