• Paul Compton

Adding an RSW Play: Western Kentucky Over 9.5 -- 1 unit (EV 5D)

Not sure how this one slipped through the cracks for me -- must be by dint of being one of the last teams alphabetically on the list of all teams, lol. That and hurrying to get out the door for a 5 day 4th of July trip.

The Cons: Head Coach Brohm is now at Purdue. Lead RB Wales is gone, as well as some of their best offensive linemen. Most of their offensive catches are gone, too. Their clear #1 LB and DB are gone.

The Pros: QB White is back. A couple of injured RBs are set to return, offsetting the loss of Wales. There is still a decent amount of defensive personnel returning.

I've factored in 14% deductions to the offensive passing and rushing projections, a 12% deduction to the rush defense, and 4% to the pass defense.

Even still, I have WKU favored in every game this season, with the closest games being a 7 point victory at Illinois, a 2 point victor at Vanderbilt and an 11 point victory versus Middle Tennessee. With a 10 point margin being my floor/ceiling cutoff, my win floor for WKU is 10 games. With a D1-AA game, an out of conference game versus Ball State, and then a run through most of the worst C-USA teams, I have 7 games where I project WKU to win by 20+ points.

Should I really hit WKU with even steeper projection deductions? They seem like plenty to me, right now, until the new coaching staff at least proves they're not capable of pushing the pieces around the board to at least close to the level of Brohm and coaches last year.

With the number at 9.5, it obviously takes 3+ losses for the bet to lose. Do you really think WKU will lose 50%+ of their games against Illinois, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee? There could be 3 losses in there, but I'll take my chances at even money that WKU doesn't slide as far as apparently many think they will this year.